The "Risk Account" of Youth Fertility: How Loss Aversion Suppresses Fertility Intentions—Evidence from China Family Panel Studies Data

This study uses data from the China Family Panel Studies to decompose loss aversion into two dimensions: Cognitive loss amplification and behavioral loss avoidance. Employing Probit models and mediation analysis, it examines their effects on young people's fertility intentions. The results show that loss amplification significantly reduces fertility intentions, while the independent effect of loss avoidance is not robust. This suggests that young individuals tend to "catastrophize" potential losses associated with childbearing rather than simply exhibit general behavioral conservatism. Further analysis indicates that loss amplification suppresses fertility intentions through a chain mediation mechanism involving subjective social status and future confidence. Notably, the effect of subjective social status is fully transmitted through future confidence, implying that fertility decisions are essentially forward-looking risk assessments. Rather than being based on current conditions, young people make fertility decisions according to whether they expect their future living standards to deteriorate due to childbearing. From the perspective of risk structure, young individuals are most sensitive to income inequality and employment pressures, followed by housing, education, and childcare concerns. Fertility is thus perceived as a high-risk behavior that may lead to downward mobility and life instability. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the inhibitory effect of loss amplification is more pronounced among men and individuals under the age of 30, while women are more influenced by loss avoidance. These findings suggest that purely economic incentives are insufficient to alter young people's tendency to avoid fertility as a strategy for minimizing risk and maintaining stability. Fertility-support policies should therefore move beyond a singular focus on financial incentives toward a combined approach that integrates economic support with risk-reduction mechanisms. In addition to lowering immedia, institutional arrangements should prioritize alleviating concerns and stabilizing expectations, thereby restoring confidence in the future and enhancing fertility intentions.