Abstract: Future industries are the vanguard of technological innovation and industrial upgrading. Identifying the factors and synergistic mechanisms that drive the incubation and growth of future industries is crucial. Based on the theoretical framework of “digital technology innovation-driven, multi-agent participation, infrastructure support, and innovation environment interaction,” this study analyzes the mechanisms through which digital innovation ecosystems drive the incubation and growth of future industries. Building on this foundation, the study employs the dynamic QCA method to comprehensively analyze panel data from 30 provinces (regions and municipalities) in China between 2014 and 2023 through a spatio-temporal dual-dimensional perspective, exploring the confi gurational pathways by which multidimensional elements of digital innovation ecosystems drive the growth of future industries. The study fi ndings reveal that: ① Enterprise-led innovation is the core driver for the growth of future industries. ②The confi gurational pathways driving high-level growth of future industries are characterized by the “enterprise-led+ infrastructure + policy multidimensional-driven” model and the “infrastructure-policy synergy” model. ③ The configurational pathways leading to low-level growth of future industries are the “lack of core enterprise-led innovation entities” model, the “dual absence of enterprise-led innovation entities and policy support” model, and the “multiple deficiencies in enterprise-led innovation entities, policy support, and digital finance” model. ④ In the temporal dimension, infl uenced by shocks from external environmental factors, confi gurational consistency across different groups exhibits minor fluctuations at specific time points. ⑤ In the spatial dimension, economically developed eastern regions exhibit a higher concentration of high-level growth cases in future industries. While certain areas in central and western China also demonstrate high-level growth capabilities, most regions in the northeast and western parts still require industrial cultivation. This spatial disparity necessitates the formulation of tailored development strategies adapted to local conditions.