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数字经济政策如何提升产业链供应链韧性?——基于国家大数据综合试验区的准自然实验

How Can Digital Economy Policies Enhance Industrial and Supply Chain Resilience? ——A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on China’s National Big Data Comprehensive Experimental Zones

  • 摘要: 提升产业链供应链韧性已成为统筹发展和安全、构建现代化产业体系的战略基石。以国家大数据综合试验区设立为准自然实验,以产业组织纵向关系理论为基础,从供需匹配优化、供需关系维持与供应质量提升三个维度,重构了产业链供应链韧性的内涵与测度体系,并基于此实证检验了数字经济政策的影响效果与作用机制。研究发现,该政策显著增强了企业产业链供应链韧性,结论经系列稳健性与内生性检验后依然成立。机制分析显示,政策通过优化技术、人才、资本和数据要素供给,赋能上下游协同与创新,从而提升韧性。异质性分析进一步揭示,政策效果在成长期与成熟期企业、非战略性新兴产业、数字金融发达地区,以及高经济政策不确定性和强风险抵抗能力企业中更为突出。从要素赋能与风险适配双维度揭示了数字经济政策影响韧性的内在机理,为实施差异化政策以增强产业链供应链安全提供了理论依据与经验支撑。

     

    Abstract: Enhancing the resilience of industrial and supply chains has become a strategic cornerstone for balancing development and security and building a modern industrial system.This study treats the establishment of the National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zone as a quasi-natural experiment. Based on the vertical relationship theory in industrial organization, the study refines the resilience measurement system by reconstructing the connotation and measurement framework of industrial and supply chain resilience across three dimensions: supply-demand matching optimization, relationship maintenance, and quality improvement. It empirically examines the impact and mechanisms of digital economy policies on industrial and supply chain resilience. The findings indicate that the policy significantly enhances the resilience of corporate industrial and supply chains, a conclusion that remains robust after a series of reliability and endogeneity tests. Mechanism analysis reveals that the policy improves resilience primarily by optimizing the supply of technology, talent, capital, and data elements, thereby enabling upstream and downstream collaboration and innovation. Heterogeneity analysis further shows that the policy effects are more pronounced in growth- and maturity-stage enterprises, non-strategic emerging industries, regions with advanced digital finance, and enterprises facing higher economic policy uncertainty or possessing stronger risk resistance capabilities. The study elucidates the intrinsic mechanisms through which digital economy policies influence resilience from the dual dimensions of factor empowerment and risk adaptation, providing theoretical foundations and empirical support for implementing differentiated policies to strengthen the security of industrial and supply chains.

     

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