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科技保险赋能高新技术产业高质量发展基于科技风险的抑制视角

Technology Insurance Empowers the High-Quality Development of High-Tech Industries —From the Perspective of Suppressing Technological Risks

  • 摘要: 基于“风险抑制−保险赋能”的理论逻辑,结合中国转型期制度特征构建高新技术产业科技风险与高质量发展双维度评价体系,利用2005—2023年中国31个省份(不包括中国香港、澳门和中国台湾地区)的面板数据,从科技风险抑制效应视角,反向实证科技保险对高新技术产业高质量发展的赋能效应与作用机制。研究发现,科技风险对高新技术产业高质量发展存在显著且稳健的抑制作用。该结论在经过工具变量法内生性处理及多场景稳健性检验后结论依然成立,反向印证科技保险化解创新风险、稳定产业预期发展的核心价值。机制分析表明,科技风险主要通过降低科技创新效率、削弱产业风险承担水平、加剧资源错配三条链式路径阻滞产业发展,反向揭示科技保险能够通过提升产出质量、增强风险承担意愿及优化资源配置对冲抑制效应,提升保险赋能空间。此外,在数字金融发展水平较高、知识产权保护强度较弱、银行主导型金融结构下,科技风险的抑制效应更强,映射科技保险差异化需求,表明此类情境中科技保险的制度替代与融资增信功能具备更强的现实紧迫性。

     

    Abstract: Based on the theoretical framework of "Risk Suppression - Insurance Empowerment," this paper empirically examines the empowering role of technology insurance on the high-quality development of high-tech industries using panel data from 31 Chinese provinces (2005–2023). The results show that technology risk significantly inhibits high-quality development. This conclusion remains robust after endogeneity and stability checks, validating the risk-mitigating and expectation-stabilizing value of technology insurance. Mechanism analysis reveals that technology risk impedes development by reducing innovation efficiency, weakening corporate risk-taking, and exacerbating resource misallocation. Heterogeneity analysis indicates the inhibitory effect is more pronounced in regions with high digital finance development, weak intellectual property protection, and bank-dominated financial structures. These findings highlight the urgent need for technology insurance's institutional substitution and credit enhancement functions in such contexts.

     

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