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上市公司“壳资源”定价研究基于Heston-模糊实物期权定价模型的视角

Research on the Pricing of Listed Company "Shell Resources" — From the Perspective of the Heston-Fuzzy Real Option Pricing Model

  • 摘要: 在全面注册制实施、退市常态化和并购重组监管趋严的背景下,上市公司“壳资源”的价值基础已由单纯的上市通道稀缺性,转向制度约束下的资本平台选择权。突破传统研究将“壳资源”等同于标准金融看涨期权的局限,从制度经济学与实物期权理论交叉视角,将“壳资源”界定为控制权转移、资产注入与产业整合全流程中持有的受约束的复合实物期权。基于此,引入Heston随机波动率模型与模糊数学方法,将“壳资源”定价过程中的关键参数构建为梯形模糊数函数,构建Heston-模糊实物期权定价模型,并以典型产业整合型重大资产重组为案例,系统揭示全面注册制背景下“壳资源”的区间估值特征与动态收敛规律。研究表明,该模型能够精准刻画不同信息完备度下“壳资源”价值的收敛轨迹,揭示其价值内核已由核准制时期的上市通道稀缺性溢价,转向产业整合场景下的时间效率价值、交易确定性价值与资本平台协同价值,不存在脱离实体资产支撑的普遍性高溢价。本研究拓展了特殊无形资产估值的理论边界,为“壳资源”并购定价机制优化与资本市场监管效能提升提供学理支撑。

     

    Abstract: Under the backdrop of the full implementation of the registration system, normalized delisting, and tighter supervision of mergers and acquisitions, the value basis of listed companies' "shell resources" has shifted from the mere scarcity of listing channels to the choice of capital platforms under institutional constraints. Moving beyond traditional research that equates "shell resources" with standard financial call options, from the intersecting perspective of institutional economics and real options theory, "shell resources" are defined as constrained composite real options held throughout the full process of control transfer, asset injection, and industrial integration. Based on this, introducing the Heston stochastic volatility model and fuzzy mathematics methods, the key parameters in the valuation process of "shell resources" are constructed as trapezoidal fuzzy number functions, forming a Heston-fuzzy real options pricing model. Using a typical major asset restructuring in industrial integration as a case study, this systemically reveals the interval valuation characteristics and dynamics convergence patterns of "shell resources" under the full registration system. The study shows that this model can accurately depict the convergence trajectory of 'shell resource' value under different levels of information completeness and reveals that its value core has shifted from the listing channel scarcity premium during the approval system era to the time efficiency value, transaction certainty value, and capital platform synergy value in industrial integration scenarios, with no widespread high premium disconnected from underlying assets. This research expands the theoretical boundaries of special intangible asset valuation and provides scholarly support for optimizing 'shell resource' M&A pricing mechanisms and enhancing capital market regulatory effectiveness.

     

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